The full ledger · updated every session · misses stay
Every call the desk publishes gets graded by the same pipeline that published it — the morning regime call, every signal in the feed, the levels themselves. Nothing here is hand-edited, and nothing gets quietly removed. Check our work for a few weeks before you trust us with anything.
A call that simply said "expansion" every single day would still post a high hit rate during a volatile stretch — without predicting anything. So the only number we treat as real is skill: our hit rate minus the base rate a constant call would have scored. Skill near zero means no edge yet, however good the raw hit rate looks.
We mark the scorecard PROVISIONAL until it clears a bar we committed to in advance: at least 20 graded sessions, and at least 5 expansion and 5 compression calls — so the call has to be shown right when it says markets will be calm, not just when they're wild. Until then we show you the honest in-progress numbers instead of a headline we haven't earned.
In short: PROVISIONAL is us refusing to flatter ourselves with a number that doesn't yet mean anything. When it flips to VERIFIED, the edge is real and measured — not assumed.
| Date | Call | Realized regime | Result |
|---|
Grading rule: at the next session close we compute realized RTH volatility; EXPANSION if it exceeds the 20-day median, COMPRESSION otherwise — then compare to the morning call. Objective and falsifiable.
The signal-outcome ledger goes live with the curated feed — the first resolved signals will appear here automatically, and none will ever be removed.
| Date | Strategy | Dir | Result | Points |
|---|
| Alert type | Firings | Graded | Status |
|---|
Long gamma dampens moves, so a confluence zone should reject. We grade each long-gamma touch against that and count it as edge only when it beats plain round-number levels — that gap is the headline number. Short gamma amplifies moves, so nearly everything breaks (round numbers included); we track it for context but it earns no edge claim. Same falsifiable rules as the regime call — provisional until the long-gamma sample clears the pre-registered bar.
The whole page is generated by the same pipeline that publishes the calls. If you want the machine-readable version: the ledger is served at api.convergepointresearch.com/v1/scorecard.
Research and decision support, not execution advice or a trade recommendation. Futures and options involve substantial risk.
